The Social Democrats are likely to take charge in Germany

AT 6PM ONSPDSPDCDUCSUSPDCDUCSUCDUCDUCSU September 26th the atrium of the Willy Brandt House, the Berlin headquarters of Germany’s Social Democratic Party (), erupted in cheers when an exit poll suggested it had won the country’s federal election. If victory was narrow, it was also sweet. Having long been in the polling doldrums, the rode a late surge to 25.7% of the vote, 1.6 points ahead of its conservative rivals, the Christian Democratic Union and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (/). Olaf Scholz, the ’s candidate to replace Angela Merkel as chancellor, said voters had told the / that it “should no longer be in government, but in opposition”.Mr Scholz’s emphasis was appropriate. For if this election had no clear winner, there was an obvious loser. At the Konrad Adenauer House, the ’s nerve centre, the mood was markedly gloomier. If the / had slightly outperformed the worst polling prognoses, the conservative bloc had still slumped to by far the worst election result in its history, losing some 4.1m votes and a whopping 8.9 percentage points since Mrs Merkel’s fourth and final win in 2017. After 16 years the chancellor, who remains in charge until a coalition is formed, will leave office with high approval ratings. But her party is in tatters.