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IT sometimes seemsEUEU-UKEUEUUKOECDEUEUUKEUECJEUEUEUEUEUEUECJUKUS EUEUEUEU EUEUEUEUEUEUGDPEUYour browser does not support the element. that Brexit will never end. Next week marks the fifth anniversary of Britain’s formal withdrawal from the European Union. A few days later Sir Keir Starmer will attend his first informal summit of leaders. A formal summit will follow in April to kick off talks on a “reset” in relations. Sir Keir wants to build on the needlessly thin trade deal agreed by Boris Johnson, a former prime minister. Most leaders favour closer links with an important neighbour.Yet even with a foundation of goodwill on both sides, tricky obstacles to a new, closer agreement remain. And, as ever in negotiations with a hard-nosed , the devil will be in the details.Five years on, the costs of Brexit have become clearer. A forthcoming report from the in a Changing Europe, a think-tank, concludes that trade in goods has suffered most (see chart 1). Since 2019 British goods exports globally have risen by just 0.3% a year, it says, compared with an average of 4.2%. Small businesses have done worst, with exports dropping by 30% and 20,000 small firms stopping all exports to the . A new study by the London School of Economics finds that goods exports have fallen by 6.4% since the trade deal came into force in 2021. Services trade has been less affected, overall, though financial-services exports have struggled. All this suggests that there would be clear gains from reducing today’s barriers.Given that broad background, the is frustrated that the British still seem vague over exactly what they want. Like his Tory predecessors, Sir Keir is firmer on his red lines—no single market, no customs union and no free movement of people, all of which he ruled out during the election campaign—than his asks. He frets about a pro-Brexit backlash and the growth of Nigel Farage’s Reform party.But the atmosphere for a rapprochement has improved. The geopolitical backdrop of an aggressive Russia, an assertive China and the return of Donald Trump in America makes closer cross-channel ties more urgent. And despite his red lines, the sees Sir Keir as refreshingly non-ideological over such issues as the alignment of regulations or the involvement in dispute resolution of the European Court of Justice (), notes Mujtaba Rahman of the Eurasia Group, a consultancy.The obvious place to start with is closer co-operation on foreign and security policy, including defence. This is easier territory than trade partly because it is largely inter-governmental, though even here the role of the institutions is growing. Britain and the already work closely on Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. As a former prosecutor, Sir Keir is also well-placed to argue for tighter links with European policing and justice bodies.There may be more problems over defence, as some countries, notably France, think that any -linked funds should be largely spent in members. However, as Europe struggles to respond to Mr Trump’s demands to raise defence spending, it would be bizarrely counterproductive not to find a way of including Britain.A foreign-policy and security pact could also help with trade talks. Brussels is wary of reopening the trade deal, which suits the better than Britain, and of any effort to “cherry-pick” selective access to parts of the single market. But there are areas where both sides would benefit from lower friction.One is a veterinary (in the jargon, sanitary and phytosanitary) agreement that would remove technical obstacles to food trade. Such a deal would require dynamic alignment with current and future plant and food standards, and would also imply a role for the . It would make a trade deal with America near-impossible; but despite continuing chatter about a - agreement, its chances are in truth remote. A veterinary deal would boost food commerce in both directions, do much to reduce barriers between Great Britain and Northern Ireland under the Windsor framework and help British farmers, who are cross with Sir Keir over inheritance tax.Next is energy, where more co-operation across the North Sea would bring mutual benefits. Better electricity connectors would be good for both Britain and the. There is also an urgent need to link emissions-trading schemes. In January 2026 the will impose its carbon border-adjustment mechanism to penalise carbon-intensive imports. If Britain stays outside the ’s system, that could mean tariffs on many exports to Europe, which aligning the two schemes would avoid.The wants to cut red tape and visa obstacles to mobility, especially of the young. This is not a return to free movement by the back door but a time- and age-limited attempt to regain something young people on both sides have lost in travel, short-term jobs and university studies. Almost half of businesses responding to a recent British Chambers of Commerce survey said they wanted it to be easier for staff to work in the .And there is hope of an early return to the Erasmus scheme of student exchanges. Since it started, Erasmus has sent some 60% more European students to British universities than the other way round. This imbalance may impose a net cost on Britain’s Treasury, but as one diplomat says, if the only issue is money, it can surely be resolved in negotiation.More problematic are British hopes for mutual recognition of professional qualifications, a deal for touring musicians and the easing of barriers to trade in chemicals. All three raise fears of cherry-picking. But the passage of the government’s product-regulation and metrology bill will make it simpler to choose to align with product-safety standards. When asked if it would be more sensible instead to join with Mr Trump’s America, Sir Keir responds that it is unnecessary to choose. But if a tariff war makes a choice unavoidable, the politics and the economics both suggest that Britain would do better lining up with the .A final issue concerns some time-bombs left in the current trade deal. The most likely to cause trouble, despite being of little economic significance, is fish. The agreement on quota shares finishes in June 2026. The wants it renewed, but British fishers are hoping for larger quotas. A British concession could facilitate the more valuable veterinary deal.Britain also wants the to renew its approval of British data-protection standards, which will expire in June this year. And in 2027 an agreement not to impose 10% tariffs on electric vehicles traded across the channel will come to an end unless renewed. Deals on all three would smooth the path to a broader accord.The economic benefit for Britain of such a package may not seem that large: the Centre for European Reform, another think-tank, puts it at between 0.3% and 0.7% of . Yet in a near-stagnant economy, that would be well worth having. And the politics may not be as tricky as Sir Keir fears. Public opinion has shifted since 2016 to the view that Brexit was a mistake (see chart 2). The success of Reform reflects resistance to immigration more than hostility to the . It is high time for Sir Keir to be bolder in his approach.
