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“It’s indescribablecducdueucdumpYour browser does not support the element., a happiness I never knew before,” says Ahmad Denno, a Syrian who fled to Germany ten years ago. When news emerged of the toppling of the regime that had bombed his Aleppo home and terrorised his family, Mr Denno joined thousands of his compatriots in a spontaneous outpouring of joy in Berlin. Celebrations erupted across the German cities that many Syrians have made home.Governments, too, reacted quickly to the fall of Bashar al-Assad. Amid uncertainty about what would come next in Syria, several European countries suspended ongoing asylum claims from the country’s nationals, a procedural move that unsettled many refugees. More dispiritingly, conservative politicians fell over themselves to propose plans for their return. Jens Spahn, a senior member of Germany’s opposition Christian Democrats (), suggested handing €1,000 ($1,050) to any Syrian who wished to go home. Austria’s government even instructed officials to prepare deportation plans.“This can only be explained by the desire of some conservative politicians to overcome the trauma of [Angela] Merkel,” says Nils Schmid, a foreign-policy spokesman for Germany’s ruling Social Democrats. Mrs Merkel’s refusal to close Germany’s borders to Syrian and other migrants in 2015 made her a liberal hero but angered many in her . After a backlash, Mrs Merkel said refugees would go home when peace returned to Syria. Many in her party think that bill has come due.They are likely to be disappointed. Germany’s nearly 1m Syrians are its third-biggest minority after Turks and Ukrainians. Almost a decade after the 2015-16 influx, many have put down roots. The employment rate for Syrians in Germany is higher than in most other countries, and growing quickly, in industries from health care to transport. Nearly 200,000 Syrian children are in German schools, many of them born in Germany or too young to recall anywhere else. Tens of thousands more are in vocational training or at university.“People have to go back when the reason they fled has disappeared,” says Peter Beyer, a . Could Germany force them to? Since 2016 most Syrians have received “subsidiary protection”, a less extensive form of sanctuary than full asylum: it can be withdrawn when conditions at home change, and their residence permits must be renewed every few years. Earlier this year German courts began to grow cold even on this temporary refuge.Several European countries, including Italy, had proposed normalising ties with Mr Assad before he fell, to facilitate the return of Syrian nationals. This week’s calls for returns had more to do with “Europe’s toxic migration debate than with the situation in Syria”, says Judith Kohlenberger, a migration researcher at the Vienna University of Economics and Business. In recent years the number of Syrians naturalising in Germany has exploded (see chart). Some 40% of Syrians in Germany are believed to have begun the process, and that will rise: the qualifying residence period was recently cut from eight to five years. “I have citizenship and a good job,” says Ali Ghali, a software engineer from Syria who came to Germany in 2015 and naturalised last year. “I don’t see myself going back in the short-to-medium term.” Even after the 2015-16 wave, Syrians continued to flock to Germany; almost 250,000 have lodged asylum claims since 2022. With shallower roots in Germany, some among this cohort may be ready to return should Syria’s new rulers provide enduring security. Other refugees will want to help rebuild their shattered country; Mr Denno says he feels that tug. “I wouldn’t rule out a form of circular migration” in which Syrians with ties to Germany would travel back and forth, says Zeynep Yanasmayan of the German Centre for Integration and Migration Research. Some might establish business links, or engage in humanitarian work.For others, Syria belongs in the past. “I’m not going back, I suffered enough,” says Nuar Albahra, a 63-year-old Damascene whose family was tormented by Syria’s rulers over decades. Now living in the eastern state of Brandenburg, she says most Germans she meets regard her with suspicion. “But we managed to survive the hell of Syria. At least we are safe here.”
