NATO gets tougher on hybrid warfare

Finland’s seizureNATONATONATONATOBBCNATONATOUNUNCLOSNATO on December 26th of the , a Russian-linked sanctions-busting “” tanker, could mark a turning-point in Europe’s response to the Kremlin’s hybrid-warfare campaign. The ship had been dragging its anchor along the seabed, trying to damage the 170km (106-mile) Estlink 2 power cable, which links Finland and Estonia. The shutdown of the cable led to a sudden drop in electricity supply to Estonia. Suspecting sabotage, the Finns sent coastguards to board the almost 20-year-old vessel, registered in the Cook Islands, and sailed it to Finnish waters for investigation.A few days later Finland’s Bureau of Investigation confirmed that the dragging track was “dozens of kilometres” in length. The anchor has not been found. The damage to Estlink 2 will take months to repair. It is the first time a government has impounded a commercial ship for . There have been at least two similar incidents in recent months. Finland’s move represents a growing mood in favour of a tougher approach.In mid-November the , a Chinese-flagged bulk carrier, was suspected of severing two undersea fibre-optic cables in Sweden’s exclusive economic zone. Swedish police boarded the vessel, but were only allowed to observe a lacklustre investigation by Chinese officials. After lying at anchor between Sweden and Denmark for a month the ship was allowed to continue its voyage. Germany’s defence minister, Boris Pistorius, had no doubt it was sabotage: “Nobody believes that these cables were accidentally severed.” Another Chinese ship, the , damaged the Balticconnector gas pipeline in October. Chinese authorities claimed this too was an accident.Besides the acute threat of damage to infrastructure from such ships, there is also evidence of espionage. and , another dark-fleet tanker used by Russia to evade sanctions, share the same ship managers and have a similarly opaque ownership structure. Both were kitted out as “spy ships”, according to an investigation by Lloyd’s List Intelligence, a shipping information service. They were crammed with high-tech intelligence-gathering equipment used to monitor ships and aircraft. It is not clear who would have operated the equipment on the , but it is unlikely to have been the Georgian and Indian seafarers who made up most of its crew.On December 30th held a hastily convened meeting at its Brussels headquarters to discuss ways of countering the threat in the Baltic. In a statement the alliance said it would enhance its military presence “to maintain vigilance, increase situational awareness, and deter future incidents”. Other measures are under consideration too. In May established a new Maritime Centre for Security of Critical Undersea Infrastructure.The tough response of Finland and Estonia was welcomed by other Baltic allies and by ’s new secretary-general, Mark Rutte, who are frustrated that not enough has been done until now to deter Russian sabotage. The Latvian prime minister, Evika Siliņa, told the on December 29th that “we should stop them [dark-fleet tankers] going through the Baltic Sea…Our government has the power to seize those ships which do not obey international law and impose threats to our critical infrastructure.” In an interview with on December 16th the prime minister of Estonia, Kristen Michal, called Russian hybrid attacks “the first and utmost security threat in this region”. The challenge, he said, is “to catch those carrying out attacks and then to call Russia out”.The seizure of the sets an important precedent, says Charlie Edwards of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a think-tank. “In the past we have been too cautious. hasn’t really had a strategy which has had any deterrent impact on the dark fleet.” Some 70% of Russia’s oil is shipped through the Baltic and Black Sea, he notes, and up to 12 dark-fleet tankers pass through the English Channel every day. navies track them but do nothing to impede them. The has also been accused of dropping “sensor-type devices” while transiting the Channel.Mr Edwards believes that part of the excessive caution stems from an overgenerous interpretation of the protection to freedom of navigation provided by the Convention on the Law of the Sea (). However, that freedom is based on the concept of “innocent passage”. If a ship threatens peace, good order and security, it forfeits that right. Dark-fleet ships that are likely to have inadequate insurance against environmental or other damage, which are believed to have conducted sabotage and which are packed with illegal spying gear seem hardly innocent.Keir Giles, a Russia expert at Chatham House, another London-based think-tank, says it is vital that Russia’s expanding hybrid war against Europe be exposed. In the past year there have been mysterious fires at defence-industry facilities, packages exploding in delivery warehouses and even a plot to kill the boss of Germany’s biggest arms firm, Rheinmetall. With attacks on undersea infrastructure, he says, it is only through seizure of a vessel that evidence can be gathered and culprits brought before the courts.That appears to be the approach the Finns are taking. Finnish prosecutors are preparing charges (of aggravated interference with telecommunications and aggravated vandalism) against the operators and owners of the .Until now, Russia has regarded such “grey zone” activities as relatively low-risk, given the difficulties of attribution. The Baltic was complacently described by some as a “ lake” after the recent admissions to the alliance of Sweden and Finland. Russia sees it differently. Finland and Estonia have shown how Russia’s strategic calculus could be challenged. Will others follow their example?