America’s Federal Reserve could soon be flying blind

One of the most anodyne phrases a central banker can utter is that they are “data-dependent”. It is a sophisticated way of saying that they do not know the future, and so will wait and see what the numbers look like. These days, though, declarations of data dependence by the Federal Reserve are more interesting: they sound like plaintive pleas rather than statements of the obvious. Many of the data points that allow the Fed, analysts and investors to understand the American economy are on the verge of disappearing, a casualty of the looming government shutdown.Congress faces a deadline of midnight on September 30th to pass a bill to keep the federal government funded. Given the stubbornness of hardline Republicans, who wield near-veto power in the House of Representatives, the chances that America’s legislature will miss the deadline are high and rising. The most recent government shutdown, which started towards the end of 2018, lasted for 35 days, meaning it could easily be November before federal employees get back to work this year.