Five things investors have learned this year

Stockmarkets, the economist Paul Samuelson once quipped, have predicted nine out of the last five recessions. Today they stand accused of crying wolf yet again. Pessimism seized trading floors around the world in 2022, as asset prices plunged, consumers howled and recessions seemed all but inevitable. Yet so far is the only big economy to have actually experienced one—and a mild one at that. In a growing number of countries, it is now easier to imagine a “soft landing”, in which central bankers succeed in quelling inflation without quashing growth. Markets, accordingly, have spent months in party mode. Taking the summer lull as a chance to reflect on the year so far, here are some of the things investors have learned.