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UKRAINE’S PRESIDENTNATO GNATOYour browser does not support the element., Volodymyr Zelensky, declared last week that is sending troops to Russia, in effect joining the invasion as a co-combatant. The appearance of one of the world’s most erratic and heavily-armed nations in the fight might test the best-resourced and well-rested defences. After 32 months of grinding war against a much larger enemy, .The Ukrainian claims were later backed up by South Korea and on October 23rd by America’s defence secretary, Lloyd Austin. Ukraine maintains that North Korea’s dictator, Kim Jong-un, has decided to commit at least 11,000 to the war. General Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, says they are training at four ranges in and around the Khabarovsk region in Russia’s far east. He says they include at least 500 officers and three generals. A contingent of 2,600, he says, is due to be transferred to battle in Russia’s Kursk region by the end of October. A senior official told that the alliance has yet to see signs of “large-scale” movements towards the front.If the Ukrainian claims are true, it would not be the first time North Korea has come to Russia’s assistance in the war. It is already a big supplier of arms. Mr Budanov says shipments that began in late 2022 have reached 2.8m shells a year, just 100,000 short of Russia’s own annual production at 2.9m. Since late 2023 North Korea has also sent ballistic missiles, with launch systems serviced by North Korean crews. Pulled mostly from old stock, the battlefield performance of these missiles has been erratic. They regularly overshoot military targets to wreak havoc on Ukrainian towns and cities.North Korea is not donating its men or weapons out of charity. The enhanced co-operation stems from a mutual assistance treaty, signed by Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un during a fawning dictators’ ceremony in Pyongyang in June 2024. Mr Budanov describes the secret provisions of the agreement as a quid pro quo: Russian hard cash and know-how in return for North Korean men and missiles. Russia is helping North Korea circumvent sanctions and “strengthen” its nuclear capabilities. In particular, he says, it is transferring some technologies for low-yield tactical nuclear weapons and submarine missile-launch systems. However, there is no independent corroboration of this alarming claim.John Foreman, who paid close attention to North Korea in his role as British defence attaché to Russia during 2019-22, says Russian attempts to strengthen the military relationship predate the invasion. But he interprets the latest developments as a sign of Russian desperation, a reflection about just how far the self-appointed “world’s second army” has fallen as a strategic power. “Russia used to look down on North Korea as a pygmy state,” he says. It was the great power “with Tchaikovsky and Chekhov and ballet…not some bloke with ill-fitting suits in love with artillery and killing people.”But if the partnership is indeed a sign of Russian weakness, it isn’t yet pronounced or immediate enough for Ukraine. On the battlefield, things are still looking grim. Russia is making significant progress pressing simultaneously at several points along the 1,000km front line, despite staggeringly high casualties that have now surpassed 600,000 dead and wounded, by American estimates. Russia is in the process of encircling Pokrovsk, an important logistical hub in eastern Ukraine, and advancing further south, after taking control of the heights around Vuhledar.A Ukrainian official says Russia’s next objective may be an advance on the city of Zaporizhia, a major industrial centre in Ukraine’s south close to a Russian-occupied nuclear-power plant. The same source suggests Russia may already have taken back as much as half of the territory Ukraine seized in the Kursk region in August 2024, Ukraine’s only serious advance since the failed 2023 counter-offensive.Ukraine’s worries go beyond the shaky front lines. Western support, already stretched thin, is looking more precarious than before. This week the 7 further fleshed out the details of a loan of $50bn, to be paid for by interest on seized Russian assets; final agreement should be reached in the next few days. But a win by Donald Trump in the American election, now two weeks away, could choke off much of the direct military assistance. A victory by Kamala Harris offers no promises either. Germany, Ukraine’s second-biggest backer, has already signalled that aid will fall. France has done likewise.Meanwhile Russia is busy internationalising the war in other ways as well. Last week Andrei Belousov, its defence minister, met officials in China for talks on strengthening military co-operation. Iran continues to supply Russia with drones, though its long-promised ballistic missiles have not so far appeared. The North Korean relationship is growing in strength. “We have partners, they have allies,” grumbles General Budanov. Ukraine is already neck-deep in a world war, he warns. “Just like the early days of the second world war, not everyone sees it yet.”Ukraine is keen to use North Korean involvement to boost its own diplomatic efforts. “In such circumstances, our relations with partners need further development,” Mr Zelensky said on October 13th. Three days later, the Ukrainian president published his five-point “Victory Plan,” previously presented in private to American officials. The key points are proposals that Ukraine receives an invitation to join ; a bigger arsenal of weapons; and something described as “non-nuclear deterrence”—essentially a large number of long-range missiles that could take out key logistical and military targets in Russia.A Ukrainian official, who asked to remain anonymous, says the package should be interpreted as “coercive diplomacy”, or a way to get Russia to negotiate peace on more favourable terms. But the same official was also frank: its potential for escalation had not been well received in Washington. “They say it’s a non-starter, though part of the problem is they don’t tell the [Ukrainian] president that to his face.”Russia, in contrast, is not overly concerned about its own escalation plans. How untested North Korean troops will fare on the European battlefield is still an open question. They have not yet been exposed to the realities of a modern war, now dominated by cheap, deadly tactical strike drones. It will take them a few weeks to adjust—if they last that long. But for General Budanov, the development is an “unwelcome experiment”. Russian soldiers are one thing, the spy chief says, with the vast bulk of them unmotivated and resigned to their fate. The North Koreans, on the other hand, come with a pre-programmed ideology. They have families back home that could be executed if things do not go well. “They fix some problems for the Russians. There is reason to be concerned.”
