Rates are rising at unprecedented speed. When will they bite?

to impress central bankers, inject “long and variable lags” into a conversation and heave a heavy sigh. The phrase, coined by Milton Friedman, a Nobel-prizewinning economist, is sophisticated shorthand for the delayed and uncertain effects of monetary policy. Raising rates, as most central banks are now doing, should lead to slower growth and lower inflation. But it can take time for the full impact to be felt. Hence Friedman’s idea of a long lag. The variability, meanwhile, refers to the lack of a predictable interval between raise and result.