A higher global oil price will help Russia pay for its war

The bonanza could not last for ever. After reaching in recent months, despite Western embargoes, dwindling production and the risks of navigating the Black Sea, Russia’s crude shipments fell to 3m barrels a day (b/d) in August, some 800,000 lower than the April-May average and below pre-war levels. They are likely to remain sub-par. On September 5th Russia said it would extend a “voluntary” 300,000 b/d cut first announced for August to the end of 2023 (the baseline for this reduction is unclear).