Oil prices fall, defying suggestions of a $100 barrel

This year opecOPECopec.Saudi Arabia and its allies in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries () have been trying to climb what seems like a . Despite production cuts, crude-oil prices, which exceeded $115 a barrel for much of June 2022, languished below $80 a year later. Then the cartel appeared to regain control after Saudi Arabia decided on an extra output cut of 1m barrels a day (b/d)—equivalent to 1% of global demand—which it has since extended until the end of the year. Signs that the global economy might avoid a recession after all also helped. On September 27th oil prices neared $97 a barrel.But this week and its allies, including Russia, succumbed to the slope once again. On October 4th, the very day the group confirmed its cuts until the end of the year at a meeting in Vienna, oil prices dropped by more than 5%, to $86 a barrel. Amid such volatility, pundits are debating where prices will go next. The bears reckon that crude will stay at this level until Christmas, or maybe even fall further. Meanwhile, bulls predict a rebound before too long; some still foresee triple digits before the festive season. The stakes are high, and not just for Dearer oil would push up inflation, which could force central banks to keep policy tighter than they would otherwise like, and would also deal a heavy blow to the global economy.