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ON PAPERNATOAWOLYour browser does not support the element., Donald Trump’s return to the White House looks like Ukraine’s worst nightmare. America’s incoming president has consistently refused to condemn Vladimir Putin’s invasion. He appears to admire the Russian dictator’s style of rule. He once tried to blackmail Ukraine by withholding military assistance. So it comes as quite a surprise—and as an indication of just how bad things have become in the country in recent months—to learn that many senior officials were hoping for a Donald Trump victory. Faced with the choice of continued bare life-support or a wildcard president who would rip up the rules and almost certainly cut aid, they were prepared to gamble.President Volodymyr Zelensky was quick to endorse the victory, and in fulsome terms. “We look forward to an era of a strong United States of America under President Trump’s decisive leadership,” he wrote on X (formerly Twitter, and now run by the pro-Trump billionaire Elon Musk). This was not just spin. In private, his staff have become increasingly frustrated by what they describe as the Biden administration’s “self-deterrence”, the habit of fearing escalation with Russia to the point of paralysis, and a growing gap between the rhetoric of “standing with Ukraine for as long as it takes” and actions that suggest the opposite.America’s refusal to grant Ukraine permission to use its long-range missiles for strikes inside Russia, its chronic delays in supplies of military aid (even the package already approved) and its inability to offer solid security guarantees are increasingly seen as weakness and hypocrisy. Mr Trump’s victory, however, could offer Mr Zelensky a way out of what looks like a bloody deadlock at best, defeat at worst.During his election campaign, Mr Trump promised to end the war within 24 hours. Nobody—perhaps not even Mr Trump himself—knows what his peace plan actually consists of. For the moment, Ukrainian officials are working from two public formulations. The first, linked to Mr Trump’s running mate J.D. Vance, would see the conflict frozen on current lines and Ukraine forced into neutrality, with no obvious security guarantees or restraints on Mr Putin. A second plan, which Ukraine greatly prefers, was laid out by Mr Trump’s former secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, in the . That focuses on enhanced military and financial support as a deterrent to Moscow, while also keeping open the prospect of membership of . Much could depend on which plan Mr Trump is encouraged to favour. A total sell-out of Ukraine by Mr Trump is unlikely, not least because of opinion within his own Republican base. He will surely not want to be the author and owner of Ukraine’s defeat. But as a transactional politician, Mr Trump is likely to demand something in return from Ukraine. This might be access to its natural resources, for example. He will care a lot less about any liberal values. Vadym Prystaiko, Ukraine’s foreign minister during the 2019 “Ukrainegate” blackmail scandal, suggests that Mr Zelensky should be doing everything he can to impose his own logic on the new administration while Mr Trump is still working things out.The change in Washington comes at a difficult time for Ukraine’s armed forces. After a year facing down the Russian offensive, conducted at an astonishing cost to Russia, with upwards of 57,000 Russians dead this year alone, Ukraine has suffered its worst month of territorial losses since 2022 (some 620 sq km, though this is only 1% of the country’s pre-war area). Russia is moving on multiple points, and accelerating its advance. It appears to be a matter of time before Ukraine is forced to withdraw from strategic high ground around Kurakhove, in Donetsk province, leading to the possibility of a psychologically damaging entry into neighbouring Dnipro province by the end of the year.The worry now is less what is happening at the front lines than what it reveals about stresses behind them. Amid a breakdown of trust between society, the army and the political leadership, Ukraine is struggling to replace battlefield losses with conscription, barely hitting two-thirds of its target. Russia, meanwhile, is replacing its losses by recruitment with lucrative contracts, without needing to revert to mass mobilisation. A senior Ukrainian military commander admits that there has been a collapse in morale in some of the worst sections of the front. A source in the general staff suggests that nearly a fifth of soldiers have gone from their positions.There is no indication that Ukraine’s soldiers are about to give up fighting more broadly. For now, they have enough weapons to resist and enough ground to fall back on if things go badly. Ukraine still has plenty more American weapons in the pipeline and due for delivery. Russia meanwhile has its own pressures, not least high inflation, which may cause serious problems next year. But the pinch seems likely to hit Ukraine first, perhaps in a matter of six months or so.Mr Trump would doubtless want to have his deal ready before then, presumably by the time he returns to sit behind his Oval Office desk on January 20th. The unknown element remains Mr Putin and what he would settle for. Sources close to the Russian leader have given contradictory signals about his willingness to negotiate: ready to freeze hostilities along the existing contact line one day; pushing for something akin to Ukrainian capitulation the next. One source cautions that “complicated issues” make a quick peace deal “unreal.” Mr Putin, moreover, thinks his forces are winning, and with the Ukrainians on the back foot he may have a point. “It’s logical he will push further,” the Ukrainian security source says. “But military success is a deceptive thing. You can never be sure what will happen tomorrow.”Mr Putin will have his own way of negotiating. With temperatures now hovering around zero across Ukraine, Russia is renewing its campaign to destroy much of the country’s energy infrastructure. These attacks are bound to intensify. “They will try to do something,” says Mr Prystaiko. “Destroy the grid, attempt to assassinate the leadership. The next three months will be terrible.”
