The conflict in Ukraine is settling into a war of attrition

Ukraine, now in its fourth month, defies simple notions of winning and losing. Russian forces are thought to be in control of , a city at the eastern edge of a Ukrainian salient, having beaten off Ukrainian counter-attacks. Ukrainian resistance is now confined to an industrial zone in the westernmost edge of the town. Yet territorial control is ebbing and flowing. Russia’s net gains in eastern Ukraine between the middle of April and the end of May add up to just over 450 square kilometres (about a third of the size of Greater London) according to Rochan Consulting, a firm which tracks the war; hardly a spectacular bounty. Neither Russia nor Ukraine looks likely to make a decisive breakthrough. Instead, each hopes to grind the other down in a war of attrition.Russia’s losses have been severe. The invasion force that it initially committed to the war had been reduced to about 58% of its pre-war strength by the middle of May, according to a Western official. By June 1st that had fallen by another few percentage points. Russian battalion tactical groups, the basic fighting formations of the Russian army, probably started the war with around 600 men each; recently some have been seen with only 60, barely larger than a platoon. The damage to armour has been especially dramatic. Russia has lost at least 761 tanks, over a third of them since the beginning of the Donbas offensive on April 18th.