Financial sanctions may not deter China from invading Taiwan

Afew months ago the China Select Committee in America’s House of Representatives took part in a war game, complete with tabletop maps and blue and red counters. It simulated a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, and revealed familiar weaknesses in America’s position: its bases need strengthening and it soon ran out of precision munitions. Yet the game also highlighted a less obvious risk: America’s economic weapons went off half-cocked.In the simulation, the Blue Team (ie, the Americans) had to cobble together sanctions on the hoof. They punished a few Chinese state-owned banks, putting only “moderate” pressure on their adversary. The conclusion was that the best time to plan sanctions is before they are needed.