Experience from a past crisis suggests Europe should shake off any complacency

start of 2009 and see if it sounds familiar. A swathe of Europe was wondering how to keep itself warm after Russia cut off gas supplies over a dispute with Ukraine. A global shock the previous year had threatened economic meltdown, but was starting to look manageable. Europe wondered how to respond to a vast subsidy programme designed to mollycoddle American carmakers without destroying its own single market. France’s president demanded an end to unfettered free trade. A first-term German chancellor stood accused of putting national interest ahead of the European kind. Foreign policy wonks wondered how to engage with Russia in the wake of its attempts to invade its neighbour. Taylor Swift topped the charts. Recep Tayyip Erdogan looked to be dragging Turkey ever further from democracy. France was crippled by strikes. History may not repeat itself—but it can come pretty close.Besides the antics of French workers, Mr Erdogan and Ms Swift—a feature of just about every year, not just 2009 and 2023—the parallels ought to be enough for European policymakers to study the events of 14 years ago. The conclusions they might draw are sobering. For the sensation of having narrowly averted disaster felt in early 2009 turned out to be misplaced. Europe thought it had weathered the effects of the global financial crisis. In fact it had plodded through the mere prequel to the more serious euro-zone miasma that ensued. In hindsight, the start of 2009 was a period when a bit more prevention might have prevented several years’ worth of emergency late-night summits. If 2024 even half-rhymes with 2010, best to be worrying now.