Africa’s latest wave of covid-19 could be its worst yet

IN THE EARLYHIVWHOWHO months of the pandemic it was common to hear that Africa had been of covid-19. Experts pointed to low official rates of illness or death and speculated about whether they were a result of youthful demography, Africa’s experience of dealing with infectious diseases such as Ebola and , or something else entirely, perhaps underlying immunity. The premise was shaky, however. Most African countries test tiny numbers of people. Only a few keep good track of deaths. One that does, South Africa, has suffered one of the world’s highest levels of excess mortality during the pandemic. The sanguine view also neglected how, even if Africa’s waves really were less deadly than elsewhere, there might also be more of them because of low vaccination rates.Today there is little sign of the continent being spared. As of June 28th the seven-day rolling average of confirmed cases in South Africa was 267 per million people, more than five times the global average, and rising steeply. Almost a quarter of tests are positive, suggesting that many cases are going undetected. “The latest surge threatens to be Africa’s worst yet,” says Matshidiso Moeti, the head of the World Health Organisation () in Africa. Cases are rising especially quickly in 12 countries, she says, though “health systems are already pushed to breaking point” in many more. In Namibia, Uganda and Zambia, among other places, oxygen is running out and hospital beds are full. The calculates that, within weeks, the Africa-wide caseload of the third wave will surpass the peak of the second, which in turn was higher than the peak of the first.